According to David Stark, meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Upton, snowfall totals in the northern parts of New York City and the Bronx could see a total of eight to 10 inches of the white stuff, with much of the city and eastern boroughs getting hit with about six to eight inches of accumulation between Wednesday night and Friday morning.
Nassau and western Suffolk Counties are expected to see six to eight inches; the farther east the snow falls, the lighter the accumulations, with areas of eastern Suffolk slated for four to six and parts of the East End to get a reprieve, with only two to four inches forecast.
Clouds will continue to blanket the region Wednesday afternoon, with snow expected to begin falling lightly between midnight and 3 a.m.
Snow intensity is expect to pick up, with moderate to heavy snow expected between 4 and 8 a.m. Thursday for the entire Long Island and New York City area.
Between 9 and 11 a.m., the snow is expected to transition to a wintery mix, with the East End seeing the potential for a turnover to all rain Thursday morning.
Further north and west on Long Island, depending on how heavy the precipitation, a mixture of snow, sleet and rain could evolve over the late morning to early afternoon Thursday, Stark said. Even parts of New York City could see the wintery mix on Thursday afternoon.
By afternoon, at least eastern Suffolk is expected to see the potential for all rain.
"The question is, how far west does the rain go?" Stark said.
By Thursday night, the storm track is expected to fall just south and east of Montauk, with colder air coming in that could change all the precipitation back to snow across the region by 11 p.m. Thursday night.
The snow is forecast to being tapering off from the west to the east between 3 and 5 a.m. on Friday, and will clear out by the Friday morning commute, just in time for Valentine's Day.
Temperatures on Thursday are expected to hover around 35 degrees, with highs on the East End possibly climbing to 38.
Thursday evening, freezing temps will be back, with lows around 30 degrees — while Friday is forecast to be dry and sunny, with highs around 40 for the first time in over a week.